Training

I cancelled the subscription and kept the chart.

Strava Premium's best feature is one line: Fitness, the 42-day rolling average of how hard you have been training. It is a forty-year-old sports science model computed off data my watch already collects. So it is here now, with the fatigue and form curves that give it meaning, plus everything else the subscription was holding. 4,129 activities, all of it live.

Right now

Fitness, Fatigue, Form

Three numbers. Fitness is what you have banked. Fatigue is what you spent recently. Form is the difference, and it is the one that predicts whether today is a good day to race.

The curve

Two years of it

Fitness rises slowly and falls slowly. Fatigue does both fast. Every marathon block in here reads the same way: the two lines climb together, then fatigue drops off a cliff in the taper and form goes positive right before the start line. That gap is the whole point of a taper.

Fitness · Fatigue · Form

Show your work

Against Garmin's own numbers

The curve above is my computation. Garmin publishes its own acute and chronic load from the same activities, on a different scale and a shorter chronic window. Both are here. If a dashboard only ever shows the version that flatters it, you should not trust the version it shows.

Volume

Two years of weeks

Every activity, not just the runs. Strength work counts here even though it never shows up in a mileage total, which is exactly why a mileage total is a bad measure of training.

Training load per week
Intensity

Where the time actually goes

Ninety days of heart rate, by zone. The polarised training everyone recommends looks like a fat zone 1 and 2 and a thin everything else. This is the check on whether the easy days are actually easy.

Heart rate zones · last 90 days
Running power zones · last 90 days
Best efforts

The watch versus the chip

Garmin finds the fastest 5K inside any run, including the ones that were never races. Official results start when you cross the mat and include every second of the finish chute. The watch is always faster, and the honest thing is to show both rather than quote whichever is prettier.

Chip times live on the PR board. These are not those.

Markers

VO2 max and what the watch thinks I can run

VO2 max is an estimate off heart rate and pace, so read the trend and ignore the day-to-day. The predictions below are Garmin's, generated from it, and they are reliably pessimistic against a real race day.

VO2 max
The long view

Year over year

Nine years of it. The mileage went up every year until this one, which is a taper of a different kind.

Method

How this is computed